중국의 수출과 GDP 간의 관계에 관한 연구

Abstract

whether export Granger cause domestic investment. Our results support the exports, and GDP are stationary time series. From table 3, we get these conclusion: Real Export is high significant stationary time series data in period 1978-2003. Without trend Real GDP is also high significant stationary time series data. Logexport is stationary time series data without intercept and trend. LogGDP is high significant stationary time series data. Although time series of Real export and Real GDP is stationary, and in other words cointegration test is base on nonstationary time series. But in our paper, for making it more believable to other readers, we continue doing Jashon cointegration test. From the cointegration analysis between Real export and Real GDP, Log export and Log GDP above, it support the rejecting null hypothesis of no cointegration between them in any cases. In other words, the results confirm that there have relationship between Real export and Real GDP, also in Log export and Log GDP. Because of the time series data of Export and GDP is stationary and these two variables are cointegration in period 1978-2003, so we can continue to utilize Granger causality test to analysis the relationship between Real export and GDP. From the results of Granger Causality test, we find that: Real Export is the Granger causality of Real GDP in short lags term. Real GDP is not the Granger causality of Real Export except in Long lags term. Logexport is the Granger causality of LogGDP. LogGDP is not the Granger causality of Real Export. The result indicates, GDP is not the strong exogenous variable of Export, but Export is the strong exogenous variable of GDP.

whether export Granger cause GDP growth

The purpose of this study was to test the applicability of the export led growth hypothesis for the case of china during 1978 to 2003.

The paper tested if whether exports and GDP are stationary time series use DF,ADF,PP test